Soochow Securities Company Limited. has issued a research report initiating coverage on HASHKEY HLDGS (03887) with a "Buy" rating, projecting revenue of HK$859 million, HK$1.16 billion and HK$1.617 billion for 2026 to 2028, representing year-on-year growth of 18.8%, 35.1% and 39.4% respectively.
The group's gross margin is expected to rise to 62.8%, 66.4% and 73.4%, while adjusted net profit excluding share-based payments is forecast at -HK$588 million, -HK$377 million and +HK$40 million respectively.
Given that the company remains in the stage before turning core profitable, the brokerage assigns a 2027 P/S multiple of 9.5x, corresponding to a market capitalization of HK$11 billion and a target price of HK$3.98, initiating coverage with a "Buy" rating.
The brokerage believes the digital asset industry is migrating from offshore to onshore and from crypto-native to tokenised assets, and the company's long-term commitment to licensed and compliant operations positions it well to benefit from traditional institutional capital entering the digital asset market.
Key points from Soochow Securities
Asia's leading, globally positioned digital asset financial services group
HASHKEY HLDGS (03887) was founded in 2018 and is Asia's leading, globally positioned digital asset financial services group.
With Hong Kong as its core, the company operates across three major business lines including trade facilitation, on-chain services and asset management, while continuously expanding into Asian markets such as the Middle East, Singapore and Japan, and further strengthening institutional trading and clearing and settlement capabilities through Omnibus, OTC and the proposed acquisition of APEX.
Onshore digital asset market accelerating expansion, compliance first-mover advantage entering realization phase
The digital asset industry is migrating from offshore to onshore and from crypto-native to tokenised assets.
Frost & Sullivan estimates that global onshore digital asset trading volume will grow from US$4.2 trillion in 2024 to US$30.7 trillion in 2029, with a CAGR of approximately 48.9%, with Asia becoming the world's largest onshore digital asset market.
HASHKEY HLDGS has long adhered to licensed and compliant operations and is expected to continue benefiting from traditional institutional capital entering the digital asset market.
Institutionalization and regional expansion jointly driving trading scale growth, Asia Connect opens long-term space
In the first half of 2026, the company's platform trading volume grew 31.8% year-on-year to HK$282.2 billion, with institutional trading volume up 58.8% year-on-year, accounting for 82% of the total.
The Hong Kong platform maintained its leading position, while trading volume on the Middle East platform grew more than fivefold compared to the second half of 2025.
In addition, the company further connects banking and brokerage channels through Omnibus, and is building Asia Connect around markets including Hong Kong, the Middle East and Singapore.
The brokerage believes that cross-regional client and liquidity synergies are expected to drive the company's upgrade from a single trading platform to an Asian digital asset trading and settlement network.
Trading scale expansion coupled with gross margin recovery, profit improvement path gradually becoming clear
In the first half of 2026, despite weak industry conditions, the company's revenue still grew 20.6% year-on-year, with trade facilitation service revenue up 38.6% year-on-year.
The gross margin of the trading business recovered from 35.7% in the second half of 2025 to 50.1%.
As natural liquidity increases and reliance on external market makers declines, the brokerage expects the trading business gross margin to further rise to 52%, 59% and 68% for 2026 to 2028.
Tokenisation broadening medium to long-term business boundaries
In the first half of 2026, the company's RWA TVL reached HK$2.68 billion, up 167.8% year-on-year.
HSK Chain has also further shifted toward financial infrastructure scenarios including RWA, institutional finance, stablecoins and on-chain clearing and settlement.
In the medium to long term, the brokerage believes that tokenisation is expected to extend the company's fee-generating segments from trading to issuance, technical services, distribution, financing and settlement.
Risk warnings
Risks include significant volatility in digital asset prices and trading activity, regulatory policy and license acquisition risks, overseas expansion and trade execution risks, as well as cybersecurity and operational risks.