Middle East hostilities are continuing to escalate, with shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz climbing once again, while threats from the Red Sea direction are also beginning to extend toward Saudi energy facilities. On one hand, Iran claims that US naval forces have moved far away from its maritime borders; on the other, it continues to strike vessels it deems "violating" rules. Media estimates indicate that over the past two weeks, a total of 24 ships were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waters, including 6 in a single day last Sunday, making it the most severe wave of attacks since the outbreak of the conflict.

According to Iranian media reports on Tuesday the 13th local time, the Iranian navy said a "violating" oil tanker that had shut off its vessel tracking system and was attempting to pass through the eastern waters of the Strait of Hormuz was damaged and caught fire that day. Iran said the navy had confirmed the vessel's identity but did not disclose further details. Earlier, Xinhua cited an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson's remarks on Monday that Iran is reviewing the US response to its proposal to reopen the strait, and that the conditions for reopening remain unchanged.

Another risk line comes from the Red Sea and its surroundings. According to Global Times, on the 13th, the Houthis called Saudi Aramco's oil facilities a "legitimate target" and warned employees and civilians near the relevant facilities to evacuate. This means regional energy risks stem not only from the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping corridor, but may also extend further to Saudi oil production, refining, and export infrastructure.

US Carrier Rotation Leaves Only the "Washington" in the Middle East for Now

According to CCTV News, Rear Admiral Faramarz Bemani, deputy commander of the Iranian navy, said on the 12th that US naval forces have pulled back significantly, far from Iran's maritime borders. He said US Navy vessels, destroyers, and aircraft carriers have all withdrawn, and added that the Iranian navy and other forces are developing new weapons and equipment targeting the adversary's weaknesses, with some equipment already produced and ready for deployment.

Bemani also warned that if the United States again "miscalculates" the situation, Iranian forces will respond, forcing US forces to move further away from Iran's maritime borders. He also claimed that due to the conflict with Iran, US warships cannot enter the Fifth Fleet base in Bahrain, which he said has become an "empty city." These statements currently remain assertions by the Iranian military and cannot be used on their own to independently confirm the actual scale and changes of US naval deployments.

The US military has indeed recently carried out a carrier rotation. According to CCTV News, the USS Lincoln returned to its home port in San Diego, California, on October 8, and the USS Bush, previously deployed in the Middle East, has also withdrawn. According to that report, as of now, the only US carrier strike group conducting operations against Iran in the Middle East is the USS Washington; the newly dispatched USS Roosevelt carrier strike group departed from the United States on September 27 and is not expected to enter Middle East waters until late October at the earliest.

This deployment change coincides with Iran's claims that US naval forces have pulled back, but a carrier rotation in itself does not necessarily mean that overall US military pressure has decreased. The actual operational capability of US forces in the Middle East also depends on other vessels, land-based aviation, base support, and long-range strike forces.

24 Ships Attacked in Two Weeks as Hormuz Shipping Suffers Worst Shock Since War Began

According to a report by the UK's Financial Times, in the two weeks ending October 11, a total of 24 vessels were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waters, surpassing the previous high of 13 ships attacked in a two-week period in early March. On October 11 alone, 6 vessels were targeted, including product tankers, crude oil tankers, and an Indian container ship.

This wave of attacks has already had a clear impact on actual transportation. Citing relevant data, the Financial Times said oil export volumes passing through the Strait of Hormuz have fallen from an average of 15.5 million barrels per day in September to 2.9 million barrels per day on October 11, a plunge of 81.3% compared with the September daily average. India has expressed concern over injuries to its crew members and two people missing.

Previously, despite continued regional conflict, tanker transportation had briefly shown signs of recovery, but the recent rise in attack frequency is weakening the shipping industry's willingness to continue entering the Gulf. Even if shipowners can obtain high freight rates, risks such as vessels being attacked, casualties, rising insurance costs, and voyage delays may make some voyages unattractive.

For the crude oil market, the key variable is not only whether the strait is completely cut off to navigation, but also how many vessels are willing to enter the relevant waters, whether tankers can continue to complete loading and transfers, and whether export volumes can remain at a relatively high level. If shipping risks continue to rise, supply recovery may once again be hindered.

Iran Reviews US Views, but Conditions for Reopening the Strait Remain Unchanged

As shipping risks rise, diplomatic communication between Iran and the United States has still not been interrupted. According to a Xinhua report on the 13th, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said on October 12 that Iran is reviewing the latest US views on Iran's position and will immediately convey its own views to mediators once the review is complete. He stressed that Iran's conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz remain unchanged.

Previously, Iran proposed through mediators a plan to reopen the strait and stop hostilities. Baghaei, the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson, said on the 12th that Iran is still reviewing the US response and will reply through mediators after completing its assessment. Reuters reported that the two sides still differ on the negotiating agenda: the United States wants to discuss Iran's nuclear issue as soon as possible, while Iran argues for prioritizing strait security and related conditions.

This means diplomatic communication has not yet translated into a substantive improvement in shipping security. As long as the two sides remain divided on issues such as ceasefire arrangements, maritime blockades, and the conditions for reopening the strait, shipowners will find it difficult to conclude that navigation risks have declined merely because negotiations are continuing.

Houthis List Saudi Aramco as a Target, Extending Energy Facility Risk Toward the Red Sea

Beyond the Strait of Hormuz, energy risks from the Red Sea direction are also rising.

According to Global Times, a Houthi spokesperson on the 13th called Saudi Aramco's oil facilities a "legitimate target" and warned employees and civilians near relevant oil facilities inside Saudi Arabia to stay away from those locations.

According to Turkey's Anadolu Agency, the Houthis also specifically mentioned Saudi Aramco's headquarters in Dammam, refining facilities in Riyadh, and Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport, saying that if Saudi Arabia continues to strike Yemen's capital Sanaa, the relevant locations could become retaliation targets. This threat does not currently mean those facilities have been attacked, but it clearly points potential risk toward Saudi oil companies and key infrastructure.

This change is noteworthy: the Strait of Hormuz crisis first hits crude oil and refined product transportation corridors, while threats against Saudi Aramco facilities could push risk further into oil production, refining, and energy export links. Once threats translate into actual attacks, the market will face not only ship diversions, higher insurance costs, and transport delays, but also possible damage to production facilities and a decline in supply capacity.

Against the backdrop of Iran's continued strikes on vessels, adjustments in US carrier deployments, and lingering differences in diplomatic negotiations, threats from the Red Sea direction further increase uncertainty over Middle East energy supply. For the international oil market, the overlap of shipping corridor risks and oil production facility risks means that even if some transportation gradually recovers, regional supply may still face repeated shocks.