The latest inflation data is expected to show modest price growth in July, helping keep the odds of a September interest rate hike in check.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis is set to release the July reading of the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. The Fed uses the PCE index as its official benchmark for its 2% inflation target.
Economists surveyed by FactSet expect that PCE inflation rose 0.1% month over month in July, translating into growth of 3.6% when measured over the past 12 months. That would be a slight deceleration from June’s 3.7% year-over-year increase.
Core inflation, which excludes food and energy costs, is expected to prove firmer on the month, rising 0.2%. Compared with a year ago, core inflation is expected to measure just 3.2%, a bit softer than June’s 3.3% pace.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland’s inflation nowcast, however, is firmer. The Cleveland Fed’s model doesn’t anticipate any cooling in the annual headline or core inflation rates. Truflation also expects headline and core PCE inflation to hold at annual rates of 3.7% and 3.3%, respectively, in July.
Economists expect that lower gas prices will help curb inflation again in July after pulling down the index in June. But with prices for portfolio management and investment advice spiking in the July reading of the producer price index—which is used to calculate PCE inflation—economists are expecting PCE inflation to come in firmer than the more modest rise in the consumer price index earlier this month.
“The trajectory of year-over-year pace of core inflation is unlikely to improve this year,” writes Mike Reid, head of U.S. economics for the Royal Bank of Canada. He expects to see core goods prices re-accelerate in July.
In addition to the PCE inflation data, the BEA is also releasing the second estimate of second-quarter gross domestic product growth. Previously, the BEA estimated that inflation-adjusted GDP increased at an annual rate of 1.5% during the second quarter.
Economists surveyed by FactSet expect that estimate to be revised up to 1.7% on Wednesday, led by stronger consumer spending than previously reported. Goldman Sachs economists, however, expect to see a downward revision to business fixed investment growth, after the U.S. Census Bureau’s Quarterly Services Survey showed softer software spending.
The results of Wednesday’s data releases should keep rate hike expectations in check, but Fed officials will have a chance to evaluate the August CPI data before the upcoming Sept. 15-16 policy meeting.
Boston Fed President Susan Collins said in a statement released Tuesday that she remains “particularly concerned” about price stability.
“While June and July inflation reports were mildly encouraging, monthly readings can be volatile,” Collins wrote. She added that it “remains to be seen” whether the recent improvements in inflation will be sustained.
She signaled that the data in the weeks ahead will shed more light on the trajectory of underlying inflation and the extent to which it may be receding.