Huatai Securities has published a research report titled "Consultation Conclusions and Summary of the Revised Hang Seng Tech Index Compilation Methodology," updating its inclusion predictions based on the final rules. Haizhi Tech Group (02706) remains on the forecast inclusion list, as its Atlas intelligent agent business has driven core revenue to surge, laying a foundation for long-term development and positioning it as one of the stocks likely to switch groups in this round of adjustments.

The key points from Huatai Securities Co., Ltd. (601688) are as follows: On October 7, 2026, Hang Seng Indexes Company released the "Consultation Conclusions and Summary of the Revised Hang Seng Tech Index Compilation Methodology." The consultation received 49 market responses, with all six revision proposals garnering over 80% support. Five were adopted as proposed, while the dual-group stock selection mechanism was "adopted with adjustments," adding two eligibility thresholds beyond the consultation paper. The revised methodology will be implemented in the quarterly review for the period ending September 30, 2026, with results to be announced on November 20 and corresponding constituent changes effective from Monday, December 7.

In its August 12, 2026 report titled "Hang Seng Tech Index Compilation Methodology Revision — Key Points and Impact Assessment of the Consultation Paper," Huatai Securities Co., Ltd. (601688) had already predicted the framework and first-round inclusion list. This article focuses on the changes in the final version relative to the consultation paper and comprehensively updates the inclusion predictions based on the third-quarter-end review criteria.

Three Incremental Changes in the Final Version Versus the Consultation Paper: Two Eligibility Thresholds and Complete Sub-Theme Definitions

Compared with the consultation paper, the main adjustments respond to concerns raised in the consultation feedback regarding the liquidity and revenue volatility of small-cap stocks in the growth group: (1) A minimum liquidity requirement — all non-existing constituents must meet a minimum average daily turnover of HK$100 million over the past three months; (2) A minimum revenue requirement — constituents selected by revenue growth ranking must have recorded annual revenue of no less than HK$500 million in each of the most recent two consecutive fiscal years. Additionally, the final version's appendix discloses for the first time the complete definitions of 24 technology sub-themes. The autonomous driving sub-theme sets a quantitative condition for automakers requiring that "pure electric product series account for the majority of total sales." Digital finance explicitly excludes banks, exchanges, and securities brokerage service companies. Specialized components and hardware specifically name LiDAR, acoustic components, PCB and IC substrates. The boundaries of theme classification are significantly clearer than in the consultation paper. All other elements remain unchanged as proposed: removal of industry requirements, restructuring into six major technology themes, expansion of sub-themes from 16 to 24, limitation of the stock selection universe to Hang Seng Composite LargeCap and MidCap Index constituents, and an increase in constituent count from 30 to 50.

Individual Stock Inclusion Forecast Update: 10 New Additions Each in Market Cap Group and Growth Group

Using the period from October 1, 2025 to September 30, 2026 as the measurement window, Huatai Securities Co., Ltd. (601688) updated its inclusion predictions under the final rules: (1) The market cap group is expected to add 10 stocks: Shein-W, CATL, Kingboard Laminates, JD Logistics, GDS-SW, ASMPT, Biren Technology, AAC Technologies, UBTech, and QuantumPharm; (2) The growth group is expected to add 10 stocks: Huiju Technology, InnoScience, Unisound, Hesai-W, Kingsoft Cloud, East Buy, RoboSense, Mobvista, and Haizhi Tech Group (02706), among others.

Compared with the firm's previous prediction list based on the consultation paper rules, there are notable marginal changes due to data updates through the third quarter and rule adjustments: 8 new entries — Shein-W, Huiju Technology, Unisound, Kingsoft Cloud, East Buy, RoboSense, Mobvista, and Meitu. Among them, Shein-W entered the measurement scope for the first time after its September listing and was selected at a high position in the market cap group, while the other seven were promoted in the growth group ranking after high-growth small-cap stocks were cleared by the final version's thresholds. Two stocks switched groups: QuantumPharm moved from a growth group prediction to being selected at the bottom of the market cap group, and Haizhi Tech Group (02706) shifted from a market cap group prediction to the growth group.

Haizhi Tech Group's (02706) interim results report shows that the company's core growth engine, the Atlas intelligent agent business, generated revenue of RMB 115 million, surging 135.6% year-on-year, forming a "dual-wheel drive" development pattern alongside its traditional Atlas graph business. This validates the long-term prosperity of the "graph plus controllable AI" industrial path and provides a development foundation within the growth group. Reading Group, Pony.ai-W, Geekplus-W and other stocks are on the borderline of inclusion, while Ganfeng Lithium and Geely Auto have classification pathways under the final version's sub-theme provisions and are listed as key stocks to watch.

Impact Assessment: Approximately 10% Weight Rebalancing, Corresponding to About HK$28.9 Billion in Rebalancing Funds

The Hang Seng Indexes Company's simulation of the Hang Seng Tech adjustments shows that the existing 30 constituents would account for approximately 90% of the revised index weight, with the 20 new additions totaling about 10%, a narrowing from the 11.5% simulated under the consultation paper. In terms of fund flows, based on a Hang Seng Tech tracking scale of US$37.1 billion: (1) In aggregate, this corresponds to approximately HK$28.9 billion in rebalancing funds, with about HK$20.8 billion for the market cap group and about HK$8.1 billion for the growth group; (2) At the individual stock level, CATL is the largest single addition, with an estimated weight of 2.27% to 2.43%, corresponding to inflows of HK$6.6 billion to HK$7.0 billion. Stocks with relatively low average daily turnover such as GDS-SW, Shein-W, and JD Logistics may experience a longer period of inflow impact.