Global investors are split on the idea that artificial intelligence is headed for a bubble-like pop next year, according to Bank of America's closely-tracked survey. But they're still piling into the stocks.
BofA's Fund Managers Survey, published monthly, suggests investors overweight the broader AI trade reached 37% in October, the highest since the Covid pandemic rebound of 2020. At the same time, however, around 45% of those surveyed suggested the sector could be headed for a bubble as early as next year. Around 42% disagreed.
The market's most crowded trade, in fact, continues to be in positions that bet on gains for the semiconductor industry, the survey indicated, while nearly 40% said AI capital spending is the "most likely source of a systemic credit event."
That doesn't mean their expecting a pullback, however, as some 57% see the current pace continuing into next year. Goldman Sachs analysts expect overall capex for the five major hyperscalers -- Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta Platforms and Oracle -- to rise nearly 50% to $1.2 trillion.
Jean Boivin, who heads BlackRock's Investment Institute, sees "potential volatility around the AI buildout" over the near term, but retains the group's conviction for "AI fundamentals and [a] preference for AI within U.S. equities."
"We still favor AI-related companies and listed infrastructure, where growing demand and scarcity in critical infrastructure support attractive returns," he said in a note published Monday. "Existing infrastructure could grow even more valuable amid this scarcity; despite narrative swings, we believe fundamentals will ultimately prevail."
Some swing of the AI narrative appears to be taking place this week, in fact, as chip makers in Asia tumbled following comments from Broadcom CEO Hock Tan that suggested some investors have "no clue" as to how their allocating investment in the sector, likening them to gamblers in a "casino."
"For now it's still losing money because they're spending a lot on training," Tan told an investment forum in Singapore Tuesday. "So frankly, it doesn't tell anything at this point except that there is a lot of potential revenue growth out of providing frontier generative AI models."
Here in the U.S., the PHLX Semiconductor Index fell for a fourth consecutive session on Monday, its longest losing streak since July, taking its overall October decline to around 3.1%. Last week's reporting that suggested OpenAI's revenue run rate was about $20 billion south of estimates triggered the declines, as did the rise in broader capital costs linked to the selloff in Treasuries.
That said, tech is still likely to drive the lion's share of growth in the upcoming third-quarter earnings season, which kicks off in earnest Tuesday with profit updates from the nation's biggest banks.
The S&P 500's information technology sector is likely to see overall earnings rise 66.5% from last year to around $256.5 billion, according to LSEG forecasts, while adding sectors that include stalwarts like Amazon and Google will lift that overall tally to $384.1 billion, or around half of the $774.1 billion expected for the entire S&P 500.
"Expectations for Tech earnings are high, and the bar has been reset higher heading into the season," said Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise.
"That said, we expect investors to increasingly focus on the returns being generated and the outlooks provided for signs of continued strength," he added. "And for analysts to pressure Big Tech companies during earnings calls to justify spending amid rising capital costs."