AT&T Stock Rises Despite a Downgrade on SpaceX Competition

Dow Jones
Yesterday

SpaceX upended the wireless communications industry this past week by purchasing low-band spectrum. The ripple effects of that move are still being felt on Wall Street and beyond.

On Thursday, SpaceX announced its intent to buy 14 megahertz of wireless spectrum -- essentially the pipes that carry wireless data -- in the 800 megahertz band. That frequency band penetrates obstacles, helping provide good indoor cell coverage.

SpaceX already has Starlink, its profitable space-based broadband product, and its mobile ambitions are no secret. Still, investors took the added spectrum as a shot across the bow of the traditional wireless industry. Shares of AT&T, Verizon Communications, and T-Mobile plunged on Friday.

Wall Street analysts seemed less bothered than investors. They pointed out that SpaceX still needs time, more spectrum, and terrestrial infrastructure to offer full mobile wireless service. Analyst opinions, however, aren't uniform.

On Tuesday, Bernstein analyst Laurent Yoon downgraded AT&T shares to Hold from Buy. His price target moved down $1 to $24. He also cut his price target on Verizon stock to $45 from $47, and his T-Mobile target to $180 from $220. He rates those two stocks Hold.

Yoon cut his Charter Communications stock price target to $120 from $150 and his Comcast price target to $23 from $28. He rates both stocks Hold.

It all boils down to SpaceX. It may need time to ramp up its mobile service, but more competition could mean pricing pressure. And Starlink broadband is already pressuring fixed wireless access growth at the telecoms and stealing business from cable broadband providers.

SpaceX might not end up with a truly competitive wireless offering. Still, there will be a "prolonged investor debate," says Yoon. "In the current environment, we find it increasingly difficult to justify an Outperform rating on incumbent operators."

Despite the cuts, four of the five stocks were up in early trading, including AT&T. Some of the damage has already been done. Coming into Tuesday trading, the five were down an average of 6% over the past week and down 22% on average for the year. The cable stocks have been the weakest in the group.

Comcast and Charter stocks trade for about 6 times and 3 times estimated 2026 earnings, respectively, according to FactSet. Those are low multiples. The S&P 500 trades for about 19 times. AT&T and Verizon stocks trade for closer to 9 times earnings. T-Mobile trades for about 14 times.

Despite the low valuations, Wall Street doesn't recommend the cable stocks. About one-quarter, or 25%, of analysts covering Charter rate shares Buy, according to FactSet. The average Buy-rating ratio for S&P 500 stocks typically ranges from 55% to 60%. About 33% of analysts covering Comcast rate the stock Buy.

The wireless stocks have more analyst support. Overall, 54% of analysts covering AT&T stock rate shares Buy. The Buy-rating ratios for Verizon and T-Mobile shares are 43% and 87%, respectively.

Investors can expect more rating and price-target changes as the SpaceX situation develops.

 

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