During Tuesday morning’s earnings call, JP Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) provided preliminary 2027 net interest income (NII) outlook, excluding Markets, of $107 billion.

The company said this implies about $5 billion in growth versus the annualized fourth-quarter 2026 guidance.

Around 25% of the increase is expected to come from the yield curve, with the remainder driven mainly by balance-sheet growth and changes in deposit and loan mix.

The bank expects modest consumer deposit growth in 2027, continued wholesale deposit expansion — potentially at a slower rate than in 2026 — and broadly stable card lending.

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Consumer Spending Remained Strong

Also, CFO Jeremy Barnum said consumer spending remained strong in the third quarter and the investment banking pipeline remained healthy, despite slower activity in the second half of September.

He said deals were more likely to be postponed than canceled, while warning that differences between buyers’ and sellers’ price expectations could widen temporarily before stabilizing.

Investment Banking and Capital Markets

Investment banking conditions remain supportive, despite slower activity in late September following bond-market volatility. Management said deals were more likely to be delayed than canceled, although differences in buyer and seller price expectations remain a concern.

JPMorgan declined to forecast fourth-quarter Markets revenue, citing uncertainty. The company reaffirmed the bank’s 17% through-the-cycle return on tangible common equity (ROTCE) target, compared with 20% in the third quarter of 2026, noting that recent results benefited from strong activity, high asset prices and low credit losses.

Smart Cash and AI Risks

JPMorgan is piloting its Smart Cash solution to assess customer preferences and product performance. Management sees agentic AI as an extension of existing competition from deposit products offering higher yields and fintechs.

CEO Jamie Dimon warned that rogue AI agents could harm customers or misuse their data, prompting restrictions on risky external access, particularly through insecure credentials and screen scraping.

Credit Standards and Risk Exposure

JPMorgan is tightening some credit standards amid looser lending practices elsewhere in the market. Management attributed higher wholesale credit reserves to new lending rather than deteriorating credit quality.

The bank also flagged risks from higher energy costs, interest rates, leveraged finance, hedge funds and AI-related exposure.

Earnings Snapshot

JPMorgan Chase reported adjusted earnings of $5.75 per share, below the $5.90 analyst consensus. Managed revenue increased 8% year over year to $50.91 billion, missing expectations of $51.26 billion.

JPM Stock Price Activity: JPMorgan Chase shares were up 0.39% at $335.60 at the time of publication on Tuesday.

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