Big banks are still raking in higher profits on the strength of a resilient U.S. economy and volatile markets that have led to a surge in trading. But they warned rising interest rates could spoil the fun.
JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Wells Fargo on Tuesday each reported higher third-quarter profit and revenue from a year earlier, in part because of the near-endless need for financing related to the artificial-intelligence boom, volatile equity markets and continued strength in consumer spending.
Four of the six biggest banks posted a combined profit of $32 billion, up 14% from a year earlier. Revenue across all four increased 9% to $115 billion. Bank of America and Morgan Stanley are set to report on Wednesday.
But the bond-market turbulence last month seeped into results as the banks each posted weaker-than-expected revenue from their businesses trading bonds on behalf of clients, and dealmaking slowed more than they had anticipated. In a somewhat rare occurrence, JPMorgan missed analysts expectations.
Executives were peppered with questions about how higher borrowing costs and market turmoil could stall their profit engines, especially if rates dent the broader economic enthusiasm that has prevailed among American consumers and businesses.
"Hopefully we'll enjoy this good environment for a while," JPMorgan Chief Executive Jamie Dimon said. "We just don't know when it's going to stop."
Shares of the group were mixed on the day, with Goldman up slightly while banks broadly fell. The KBW Nasdaq Bank Index dropped 1.2% on the day. Citi fell 3.8%.
The summer was hot for bond markets. A potent mix of conflict in the Middle East, sticky inflation and angst about fiscal deficits have pushed yields to quarter-century highs. Many economists now expect them to stay there for longer.
Higher borrowing costs can be a mixed blessing for banks. On one hand, they can earn more on the money they lend out to consumers and clients. But they may have to pay up for deposits, and higher rates slow down the economy and lead to unemployment, weighing on all corners of banks' business.
"Inflation and higher interest rates continue to be headwinds, and the longer they persist, the more pressure they could place on both consumers and commercial clients," Wells Fargo CEO Charlie Scharf said. "While markets have been strong, an unexpected or significant movement could filter through the broader economy."
Wall Street chugs along
Wall Street's trading and investment banking engines powered growth, with the four banks reporting an average increase of 39% in equities revenue.
Goldman Sachs led the pack with a 72% jump from a year earlier, marking the second-best quarter ever for its equities business. The bank said that the industry can't even keep up with the demand from investors to finance equities trading, creating a lending boom for Goldman.
Still, the result was a slowdown from the even better second quarter; and there was a group-wide slowdown in trading of fixed-income, currencies and commodities amid the September rise in yields. That disappointed some analysts.
In investment banking, fees slipped from the second quarter as deal announcements and initial public offerings stalled out during the trading volatility. Bankers are now awaiting the midterm elections in the U.S. to increase some stability, but they remain confident big deals are coming.
"I still think for capital markets activity, it is a top quartile environment," Goldman Chief Executive David Solomon said. "For strategic M&A, there is an enormous amount of dialogue that continues. Our backlog is incredibly robust."
Consumer spending remains high
The higher rates so far haven't dented consumer or business appetite to borrow and spend, bankers said. And clients remain financially healthy.
JPMorgan's credit- and debit-card spending was up 10% from a year earlier, while credit-card spending at Wells Fargo and Citigroup increased 11% and 12%, respectively. RBC Capital Markets analyst Gerard Cassidy noted that across the three lenders, consumer spending growth year-over-year decelerated slightly.
Executives broadly pointed to a strong labor market as the buoying force for American consumers.
"The picture is pretty simple," said JPMorgan Chief Financial Officer Jeremy Barnum. "The consumer is currently very healthy, primarily because of a healthy labor market." Barnum added that if the Federal Reserve continues to raise rates, "almost by definition, that's going to involve higher unemployment."
Wells Fargo noted that lower-income households remained more sensitive to higher borrowing costs and inflation, though they are currently stable. For now, cracks are few and far between.
The portion of cardholders with overdue card balances ticked down at JPMorgan and Citi and was flat at Wells Fargo.
"The global economy has held up remarkably well in the U.S.," Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser said. "While much has been made of the AI boom, the consumer is still driving much of the growth."